Worldliness: The purpose of the newfound rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia amid tensions between Israel and Palestine
What advantages might a peace settlement provide to China?
7 Important Questions About the Saudi-Iran Deal, Answered
In an agreement brokered by China, the regional rivals agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties, which could have ramifications throughout the Middle East and beyond
Officials from Saudi Arabia, China, and Iran form a line in front of a blue table in a wood-paneled room, their flags flying behind them.
Musaad al-Aiban, a Saudi minister, Wang Yi, China’s most senior foreign policy official, and Ali Shamkhani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, were photographed in Beijing on Friday, according to the Iranian news agency NourNews.
Ben Hubbard Shashank Bengali
By Ben Hubbard and Shashank Bengali
March 10, 2023
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The announcement by Iran and Saudi Arabia to re-establish diplomatic ties could result in a major realignment in the Middle East. It also represents a geopolitical challenge for the United States and a victory for China, which mediated the talks between the two long-standing adversaries.According to the agreement announced on Friday, Iran and Saudi Arabia will mend a seven-year schism by reviving a security cooperation pact, reopening embassies in each other’s countries within two months, and resuming trade, investment, and cultural ties. However, the rivalry between the two Persian Gulf nations is so deeply rooted in religious and political differences that simple diplomatic engagement may be insufficient to overcome them.
Here are some of the key questions surrounding the transaction.
What is the significance of this?
The new diplomatic engagement could upend Middle Eastern geopolitics by bringing together Saudi Arabia, a close US ally, and Iran, a longtime foe that Washington and its allies regard as a security threat and source of global instability.
For decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran have vied for influence, each seeing itself not only as a regional power, but also as a beacon for the world’s 1.9 billion Muslims. Tensions between the two countries reached a boiling point in 2016, when Iranian protesters stormed Saudi diplomatic missions in response to the kingdom’s execution of a dissident Shiite cleric.
In the years since, Saudi Arabia has encouraged a harsh response from the West to Iran’s nuclear programme, and has even established diplomatic back channels to Israel, the Middle East’s most powerful anti-Iran force, partly to coordinate ways to confront the threat from Tehran.
It was unclear how the Friday announcement would affect Saudi Arabia’s participation in Israeli and American efforts to counter Iran. However, the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two regional powers marked at least a partial thaw in the Middle East’s long-running cold war.
What might the ramifications be for the Middle East?
Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s leaders have regularly denounced each other since they severed diplomatic relations in 2016. Tehran has accused Saudi Arabia of supporting terrorist groups such as the Islamic State, while Saudi Arabia has condemned Iran’s support for a network of armed militias across the Middle East.
The Saudi-Iranian rivalry has fueled conflicts throughout the Middle East, including in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
It has perhaps played out most disastrously in Yemen, where Saudi bombs aimed at reversing gains made by Iranian-backed rebels have killed a large number of civilians. These insurgents have retaliated by launching increasingly sophisticated missiles and armed drones at Saudi cities and oil facilities.
Trucks transporting armed men in a sandy landscape with palm trees in the distance.
In 2018, fighters for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.
Credit…
The New York Times’ Tyler Hicks
While many observers were taken aback by the announcement on Friday, Saudi and Iranian intelligence chiefs have been meeting in Iraq in recent years to discuss regional security. A more formal diplomatic engagement may provide opportunities for the two regional powers to make further progress in calming regional flashpoints.
What part did China play?
After talks hosted by China, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced their agreement. Beijing maintains ties with both Middle Eastern countries, and the breakthrough demonstrates the country’s growing political and economic clout in the region, which has long been shaped by the US’s influence.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy
M.B.S.’s Vision: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, has pursued a tough foreign policy, bombing Yemen and aggressively imprisoning activists and critics.
Restoring Ties With Iran: The kingdom and Iran have agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties in a deal facilitated by China that could lead to a major realignment between regional rivals.
A Western Slant: As US-Saudi relations deteriorate, including over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Riyadh has moved closer to an isolated Moscow and to Beijing, with which it signed a strategic partnership agreement.
Relations with Israel: Saudi Arabia has asked the US for security guarantees as well as assistance in developing a civilian nuclear programmeIn exchange for normalising relations with Israel.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, paid a state visit to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, in December, which was welcomed by Saudi officials, who frequently complain that their American allies are withdrawing.
“China wants stability in the region because they get more than 40% of their energy from the Gulf, and tension between the two threatens their interests,” said Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East programmes at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Regional leaders have also expressed appreciation for China’s policy of “noninterference” in other countries’ affairs, which avoids criticising their domestic politics and does not have a history of sending its military to depose unfriendly dictators.
Saudi and Chinese leaders walk down a purple carpet, their flags trailing behind them.
In a photograph released by the Chinese state news media, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is seen front and centre with Saudi Crown Prince
The announcement also reflects China’s desire to play a more prominent diplomatic role on the international stage. Beijing has unveiled a “Global Security Initiative,” as well as a peace plan for Ukraine last month. Both the security initiative and the Ukraine proposal have been criticised in the West for being vague and ultimately serving Chinese interests.
What does this imply for the United States?
The news of the agreement, particularly Beijing’s role in brokering it, alarmed Washington’s foreign policy hawks.
“Renewing Iran-Saudi ties through Chinese mediation is a lose, lose, lose for American interests,” said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that advocates tough policies towards Iran and China.
He claimed that it demonstrated Saudi Arabia’s lack of trust in Washington, that Iran could sever ties with US allies in order to ease its isolation, and that China is “becoming the major-domo of Middle Eastern power politics.”
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American officials and Middle Eastern representatives seated at a round table with their respective countries’ flags behind them.
President Biden, left, and Vice President BidenPrince Mohammed, right, at a July summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Credit… The New York Times’ Doug Mills
However, if the agreement reduces regional tensions, it could be beneficial to the Biden administration, which is already dealing with the Ukraine conflict and a heightened superpower rivalry with China.
“While many in Washington will view China’s emerging role as a mediator in the Middle East as a threat, the reality is that a more stable Middle East where the Iranians and Saudis aren’t at each other’s throats also benefits the United States,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington group that supports US restraint overseas.
The White House dismissed the notion that China was filling a void left by the US in the Middle East. “We support any de-escalation efforts there.”
“While many in Washington will view China’s emerging role as a mediator in the Middle East as a threat, the reality is that a more stable Middle East where the Iranians and Saudis aren’t at each other’s throats also benefits the United States,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington group that supports US restraint overseas.
The White House dismissed the notion that China was filling a void left by the US in the Middle East. “We support any effort there to de-escalate tensions in the region,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
However, he questioned Iran’s commitment to a genuine rapprochement with a longtime adversary.
“It remains to be seen whether or not
The White House dismissed the notion that China was filling a void left by the US in the Middle East. “We support any effort there to de-escalate tensions in the region,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
However, he questioned Iran’s commitment to a genuine rapprochement with a longtime adversary.
“It remains to be seen whether the Iranians will honour their end of the bargain,” Mr. Kirby said. “This is not a regime that usually keeps its word.” So we hope they will.”
What does this mean for Israel?
The news surprised and alarmed Israel, which has no formal relations with either Iran or Saudi Arabia. However, Israeli leaders regard Iran as a threat.
They see Saudi Arabia as a potential partner rather than an enemy and an existential threat. They had hoped that shared fears of Tehran would aid Israel in forging ties with Riyadh.
Nonetheless, Israeli analysts of Iranian and Gulf affairs stated that the agreement was not entirely detrimental to Israeli interests. Although it undermines Israel’s hopes of forming a regional alliance against Iran, it may allow for greater cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
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Israeli legislators sit at a table with microphones.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, has stated repeatedly in recent months that he hopes to establish diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia for the first time.
Credit…
Photo of the pool by Ronen Zvulun
Despite normalising relations, Saudi Arabia may continue to view Iran negatively.
as an adversary and may still consider a closer partnership with Israel, particularly on military and cybersecurity issues, as a means of mitigating that threat.
The announcement prompted some Israeli politicians to reflect on their country’s internal divisions. Some argue that the re-establishment of Saudi-Iranian ties demonstrates how domestic turmoil risks distracting the government from more pressing issues, such as Iran.
What are the impediments to a genuine thaw in relations?
Saudi Arabia and Iran are the global leaders of Islam’s two largest sects, with Saudi Arabia viewing itself as the protector of Sunnis and Iran as the protector of Shiites.
Tehran’s leaders frequently criticise Saudi Arabia’s close ties with the US, accusing the kingdom of doing the West’s bidding in the Middle East.
East. In order to improve its own security and project influence, Iran has heavily invested in establishing a network of armed militias throughout the region. That network, according to Saudi Arabia, is a threat not only to its own security but also to the larger regional order.
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In November, Hezbollah fighters marched in a military parade near Beirut.
In November, Hezbollah fighters marched in a military parade near Beirut.
Credit…
Associated Press Photographer Bilal Hussein
Other points of contention include the role of Shiite militias in Iraq and Lebanon, which Iran believes strengthens Iran’s regional influence while Saudi Arabia believes weakens those countries.
Another point of contention is Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, whom the Saudis wanted to depose but whom Iran has helped keep in power.